Lukman Hakim
JAKARTA (TPP) – One week after the House probe on Century Bank dealt a severe blow to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s cabinet by accusing Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati of illegally bailing out Bank Century, speculations are rife over the future of the president’s grand coaltion and the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle.
But a cabinet reshuffle is not likely in the immediate future, political analysts said last week, as President Yudhoyono will not risk appearing to be seeking revenge so soon after three members of his Democratic Party (PD)-led coalition voted to seek a criminal investigation into the handling of the 2008 Bank Century bailout.
“Reshuffling the cabinet would create the image of Yudhoyono being a vindictive person, ” said Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst at the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).
He said the president’s Thursday night speech, in which he cited the remarkable achievements of Boediono and Mulyani, signaled an effort to conduct “political introspection.”
Yudhoyono said Boediono and Mulyani were not guilty of illegally bailing out Bank Century and were instead saviors of the nation.
Burhanuddin also said it would be “too extreme” for Yudhoyono to remove non-Democrat ministers in the near future.
“It would only benefit the opposition, particularly in gathering support for launching a strike at the government, even via impeachment procedures, not only against Boediono, but Yudhoyono,” he said.
Burhanuddin further said the chances of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) joining the government had increased given Yudhoyono’s disappointment with the stances of the Golkar Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) over the bailout investigation.
The PKS was most in danger of being removed from the government as Golkar was guided by more seasoned and crafty politicians, he said.
Burhanuddin further said the PDIP could make up the PKS’s numbers and was looking for alternative funding sources after being in opposition since 2004, in reference to the financial windfalls associated with being in power.
However, he added, the relationship between former President Megawati Sukarnoputri and Yudhoyono was the only obstacle to the PDIP joining the coalition.
Yudhoyono included four PKS members in his cabinet, three from Golkar and two from the Muslim-backed United Development Party (PPP).
But the three parties, together with PDIP, the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura), voted to seek criminal investigations over the bailout.
PD is yet to take a stance on the coalition partners, but one of its chairmen, Andi Mallarangeng, who is now the minister for sports, said: “We will carry out an evaluation on our coalition and look at ourselves internally, about what we have done and what we will do next.”
Some PD officials have meanwhile warned that the Golkar Party, the PKS and the PPP would be expelled from the coalition after last Wednesday’s vote.
The Democratic Party has previously spoken of the possibility of bringing the PDIP into the coalition, should the time come to replace one of the coalition members.
But Hasto Kristianto, the PDIP’s deputy secretary general, said on Sunday: “I think it’s a bit difficult to do. We have different ideologies. The Democrats stand by a liberal economic system while we uphold a pro-people economy.”
“The way I see it, things will start to become clearer after the PDIP holds their congress in April,” said Burhanuddin.
Stung by three of its coalition partners siding with the opposition in finding the Bank Century bailout was illegal, PD appears to have started courting the PDIP and finding a willing but hamstrung partner in the party’s advisory council chairman, Taufiq Kiemas.
Syarif Hasan, deputy secretary general of PD, dropped in on Taufiq this week and was later asked by reporters whether the Democrats would ask PDI-P to join the coalition.
Syarif said the party was open to any possibility, as “we think positively all the time.”
Despite no official talks between the two parties, Taufiq reiterated his desire to team up with Democrats.
The PDIP needed “renewal,” he said, pointing to its landslide defeat to the Democrats in last year’s legislative elections.
“Why don’t we change?” Taufiq said.
“If we are not in opposition, we will receive benefits,” he said, without elaborating.
Taufiq, who is also the chairman of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), has made no secret of his desire to join the governing coalition, though his wife, Megawati Sukarnoputri, who maintains a firm grip over the PDIP, still harbors deep resentment toward Yudhoyono for daring to contest the presidential elections in 2004.
“I think the chance is small,” the noted political researcher Syamsudin Haris told detikcom last week.
On Taufiq’s desire to bring PDIP into the coalition, Syamsudin said that it has little bezring as it is Megawati who os calling the shots in the party.
“Taufiq may have a wish, but Mega says no then it is finished,” he said.
Megawati is predicted to maintain PDIP’s stance as the opposition as becoming a member of the coalition would only benefit the party’s elite in the form of seats in the cabinet, he added.
“The downside of it is that PDIP will be seen as an inconsistent political party,” said Syamsudin.
PD senior official Marzuki Alie, who is also the Speaker of the House of Reprsentatives, said: “We are ready to cooperate with PDIP.”
Marzuki made it is clear that the present coalition is going nowhere and is not cohesive in ways that warrant “a re-arrangement” as the coalition agreement calls for.
PD chairman Anas Urbaningrum said: “We are thinking of forming a lean but healthy coalition, which is better than a fat but unhealthy one.”
Golkar Party Priyo Budi Santoso vice-chairman said: ”Our position is that we are a partner of the Dermocratic Party, not a subordinate or whatever. We are equals,” he said.
”Golkar has no plan to leave the coalition, but it all depends on the president,” said Priyo.
Anas, however, gave a positive sign on maintaining the coalition, saying that despite the fact that the three parties gave dissenting votes, PD has yet to decide on revamping the coalition.
“We do not wish to see a divorce within the coalition,” said Anas last week during a political discussion.
In a related development, National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Hatta Rajasa expressed his disappointment over the results of the House plenary sessions.
“I am disillusioned, but it`s politics. For me, honesty, loyalty, sincerity and truth are the fundamentals of life,” he said.
In the meantime, the market remained buoyant amidst the political cacophony that has inundated the nation for the past three months.
This week the Indonesian shares composite index hit the so-called psychological mark by reaching beyond 2600.
Observers say this is a clear indication that national and foeign investors remain confident in Boediono and Mulyani, both of whom are held in high esteem in business circles for their impeccable professionalism and integrity.
As usual, the solution to this prolonged crisis is a political compromise that should acommodate the interests of related parties, not the least Golkar Party, whose chairman, Aburizal Bakrie has been beleagured by corporate fiscal problems .
In the past Yudhoyono has demonstrated that he is a master in resolving complex national issues; analysts expect him to do the same in the future.
(The President Post printed edition April 11, 2010)